Rumsfeld, Gates, and the Bushes
Does Bush’s decision to replace Rumsfeld with Bob Gates signal a bigger shift in the president’s attitude towards national security? Here’s something to consider: It is well known that Rumsfeld and Bush Sr./41 detested each other — which according to Bob Woodward in State of Denial, was a key factor in Bush 43’s decision to make Rumsfeld his first SecDef.
But if anything defines Bob Gates, it is the fact that he is extremely close to the very Bush Rumsfeld so detested. Gates worked for Bush when the latter was CIA director in the mid 1970s (a position to which Bush was appointed by Ford on the recommendation of Rumsfeld in order to put him out of the running for the VP slot in 1976). During Bush 41’s presidency, Gates served as deputy national security adviser and then as CIA director. And since leaving government, Gates has been dean of the Bush School and then president of Texas A&M, which is where the Bush presidential library is located.
In other words, Bob Gates is a Bush 41 kinda guy — not exactly the profile of a Bush 43 national security principal during the last six years. Combine this with the fact that Bush today signaled that he would be looking to Jim Baker (also known as Dad’s best friend) to set his Iraq policy, and you begin to wonder whether Bush 43 may use his last two years in office to return to a Bush 41-style realism. Given the alternative, that wouldn’t be such a bad thing.














Comments (30)
In 3 words: Neoconservatism is dead.
My overall impression is that Bush 41 has never, to rather understate the matter, been a fan of neocon ideology.
November 8, 2006 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not even convinced Bush 43 knew what a Neoconservative was when he was elected in 2000. He wanted to differentiate himself from dad so he made some friends who claimed they agreed.
November 8, 2006 8:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
In perhaps a signal of trouble ahead, tomorrow's WSJ editorial page sounds not at all keen on Gates' nomination --
Most troubling regarding Iraq, Mr. Gates was deputy national security adviser under Brent Scowcroft in 1991, when President Bush's father abandoned the Shiite uprising that followed the first Gulf War. One reason the Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki has had such a hard time dismantling Shiite militias is because Shiites fear that it's only a matter of time before the U.S. abandons them again and they will have to confront the Sunni Baathist insurgency on their own.
Longer excerpt here and link here (subs req'd).
November 8, 2006 8:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think The Little Prince will do just about anything to salvage his Presidency. He practically begged the Democrats to save his ass today with all the "work together" shit. Why's that so important all of a sudden? Why didn't he tell his buddies in Congress who kissed his ass for 6 years to ask the Dems to join the process? Why, because he thought he could do it all himself. Now he knows he can't. He wants a "legacy". He dearly wants to be the guy who ends the Iraq war or at least brings the troops home. He knows neither his father nor Bill Clinton were able to leave a legacy (at least in his opinion) and he dearly, dearly doesn't want to be like either of them. That is going to drive every decision he makes for the next 2 years.
November 8, 2006 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
you should never be sure! it can be weakened if democrats do well in the next years. it won´t be dead.
ps: hope dems will do well!
karl from austria
November 9, 2006 12:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Does this mean that Cheney stops running the country?
--- Policies not Politics
Daily Landscape
November 9, 2006 4:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ivo
One of the things that Cobra II makes clear that the CIA was wrong often in Iraq, not just about WMD, but about the forces U.S. and British troops would meet. Do you think it is good or a problem that a general, Hayden, is heading the CIA, and a former head of the CIA is about to lead the Pentagon?
Daniel A. Greenbaum
November 9, 2006 5:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
It just amazes me how, in the 1980s, we were so appalled by the hard right core of Ronald Reagan's national security apparatus. These days, when those guys re-appear and Bush takes them in, they seem downright moderate. Have they changed? I don't think so. We've changed our expectations. And we're willing to accept the leadership of a classic anti-Soviet Cold Warrior, who helped define our failed Central America policy, because he is so much more moderate than the recently de-throned neo-cons who fully defined our horribly failed Middle East Policy.
November 9, 2006 6:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Everything is relative, but let's not get too effusive about the elder Bush. He has the realism and prudence his son lacks, but he plays dirty too. He was very lucky not to be tarred by Iran-Contra, and he pardoned several malefactors in order to protect himself. (Google "Walsh report" + "Chapter 28".)
November 9, 2006 6:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
So let's be clear on this: we're endorsing realpolitik, coddling dictators, preserving stability over encouraging democratic opposition, all those bad Kissingerian 70s things (usually summed up, ironically enough, by a single photo of Rumsfeld shaking Saddam's hand). (Oh, and a spend-all-the-money-you-want, Soviet-threat-focused military, as opposed to the nimbler, cheaper, more innovative force Rumsfeld has been creating for the last six years.)
It's one thing for Bush 43 to have arrived at this point through exhaustion. It's another for supposed liberals to suddenly view Metternichian cynicism as the highest best goal of American policy.
It sickens me, in fact. When did you all stop being liberals?
November 9, 2006 6:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the (pathetically) amusing thing is that all the pundit classes are saying that Bush 41 is bailing out his son.
Everyone is going to assume that his father is bailing him out the last two years and that humiliation is priceless though it's horrible the country had to suffer to get to it.
In the first place even if we could muscle through a liberal platform it would be Bush 43 who has to carry it out. How much effort do you think he would put behind it? How well do you think anything he did would work even if he did put effort behind it?
I don't think anyone has sworn to follow slavishly any of the Baker-Hamilton requests, we'll need to look and analyze them but this is a stop gap solution.
Also where did the high-spending military come in? That was out of the blue.
November 9, 2006 7:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who said anything about endorsing Gates? He might be a step up from Rummy, but at this point no one knows what he will do - or even what he can do. We know Bush will not leave Iraq, and we know that Iraq can't be won - at least not in the way we in the west would envision a win (i.e. a secular, pro-western democracy) - so where does that leave Gates? Probably doing more of the same, but with less 'aw shucks, who could know the known unknowns?' schtik. The Army is having trouble meeting recruiting goals, and there won't be a draft so the army can't increase it's numbers. Gates is going to spend two years simply NOT BEING RUMMY for the Democratic controlled congress.
As for Rummy's military being cheaper, you've got to be kidding me. The Vietnam war, adjusted for inflation, cost the United States $590 billion over ten years of fighting with our 'Soviet-threat-focused military'. We are well past the half-way mark ($340B) after three and a half years while fielding less than half as many men.
Also, I appreciate your concern for our apparent lack of liberal values, but when millions are suffering and dying beacuse of a stupid ass choice we made, step one is to stop the suffering and dying - or at least try not to make it worse. This wasn't a valiant struggle for liberty by the people of Iraq, for the people of Iraq. They didn't start this thing. We did. They didn't choose to suffer for the promise of a better tomorrow; we decided to kill thier leader and blow their shit up because we thought he might want to kill us - maybe - someday.
Liberals don't wage war for change sake. Liberals wage war when theere is no other choice. War is, as the saying goes, a failure of diplomacy.
November 9, 2006 7:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mgmax: Lesser evil -- 43 found something worse than anything 41 could do.
Beggars can't be choosers. Bush will be our President and Commander in Chief for two more years, and he's on record as believing that he doesn't have to pay any attention to law, Congress, or public opinion. Hopefully these new guys will calm him down a bit.
November 9, 2006 8:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is Daddy Bailing Out W again?
Baker, Hamilton, Gates, all cronies of Bush 43, coming to clean up the mess of Iraq.
I see a parallel here. Didn't Daddy's friends bail out W when his business failed?
It is hard to break old habits.
November 9, 2006 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bush is really a skin-deep guy whose idea of a "legacy" probably goes no deeper than looking good.
It is possible that he got an order from G_d Incarnate, Karl Rove, that the survival of a Republican party politically dominant in perpetuity depended on a united party and old-time conservatives were jumping ship in alarming numbers. Enter James Baker and now Bob Gates. Rather reminds me of all the times Bush's business "ventures" went belly up and either daddy or daddy's friends were called on to bail out little Georgie. This time they're bailing out the party.
November 9, 2006 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gates is more than I thought.
From a lengthy article in the Texas Monthly about Gates's leadership at Texas A&M, ideas about change and the big picture:
[From reader Virginia to Andrew Sullivan]
November 9, 2006 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like Baker is stepping in.
November 9, 2006 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see a legacy firewall going up around Bush and Cheney is outside of it. The firewall separates those who are working for the GWB legacy and those with their own agendas. Cheney is now only useful as a tool of building the legacy. What is not clear to me is who is the strategist for building the legacy.
Getting rid of Rumsfeld continues the marginalization of Cheney. Without Libby he had already lost some clout. Josh Bolten as Chief of Staff owes Cheney nothing. With Rumsfeld's political appointees and Cheney cronies moving on, as I expect they will, Cheney loses top level access. Cheney's man Bolton is history. Remaining lower level Cheney accolytes sprinkled around the government will have less power.
November 9, 2006 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rumsfield was not fired because Smirky made a decision. Junior is a moron who lacks human brain function. He does not actually have the ability to plan ahead or make decisions that go much beyond the timing of bodily functions. He is little more than a sock puppet that is owned and controlled by what for lack of a better term can be called the Cheney faction of the GOP. Cheney is not the head of the faction. He is just the on-site handler of the moron. The real faction consists of monied interests who buy and sell politicians. Bush Sr. is not the head of an opposing faction. He is a little brighter than his son, but still a commodity controlled by others. Understanding who really does own and operate the GOP is an investigative reporting job that remains to be done.
November 9, 2006 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Robber barons might due for a start. "A ruthlessly powerful US capitalist or industrialist of the late 19th century considered to have become wealthy by exploiting natural resources, corrupting legislators, or other unethical means." Websters Unabridged. 1996.
Any bells ringing?
November 10, 2006 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cheney's been assiduously "sprinkling" Repub accolytes through all levels of government for years - at least during his years as vice president. Simply put, the old "spoils system" has returned with a vengence under Bush/Cheney.
From the Office of Personnel Management's website: The modern civil service was created in reaction to the endemic abuses of the spoils system that ran 19th century American politics. "Political sympathy and partisan activity were...required as a condition of appointment. Fitness for office was given far less consideration and thus, the quality of public service was seriously affected" - words that could aptly apply to the Bush exec branch.
A unitary executive principle including political patronage doesn't stop with the likes of Gonzales, Chertoff, Brownie... it's evident at EPA, FDA, DOJ...
November 10, 2006 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
(I also posted some of this on another Gates thread)
On Joe Scarborough (CNN) Wednesday night, Scarborough said that Bush 41's advisers like Baker and Scowcroft had told him (Scarborough) privately that they detest Bush 43, that they think he's botched everything badly. That remark was cut from the transcript of the show, without any annotation that a portion had been edited out. Scarborough was making the point that Gates is closely tied to those Bush 41 advisers, especially Scowcroft.
Scarborough also said that a case could be made that Limbaugh had lost Montana, and hence the Senate, for the Republicans by mocking Michael J. Fox, but that no Republican would make that case because they would need Limbaugh in 2008. I think he also put Rove in the category - culpable for current losses, but needed for future wins.
Scarborough spent a good deal of time trying to distance himself from the people, policies, and talking points he's given partisan support to in the past to the detriment of the country.
November 10, 2006 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
"The modern civil service was created in reaction to the endemic abuses of the spoils system that ran 19th century American politics. [...] and thus, the quality of public service was seriously affected" - words that could aptly apply to the Bush exec branch."
Just one more example of how these guys wanted to take us back to the economic structure of the 1890's. Don'tcha just love all of those fabled Republican "new ideas?"
November 10, 2006 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bush is rearanging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
His Presidency has finally been given the bashing it deserves by the American people, which at last seem to have caught on to what has been as clear as day to any person with half a brain outside America for quite some time. How this idiot ended up the leader of the free world and in charge of the most sophisticated war machine on earth, apart perhaps from the Military Commissions Act of 2006 going into law, must be one of the most disasterous events in American history.
Now his Presidency is in tatters to the American people themselves, as it has been to us outside the US for years. We see this appointment for what it is; a pathetic effort to make it look like he's changing something when he really isn't so much. A political move that has no more impact than the sight of Condi on the telly helping fork out emergency supplies after Katrina, while we here in Australia had already seen the dead bodies outside the stadium days after it struck. Too little too late, and it was just for show.
November 13, 2006 6:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mgmax,
I can't tell you precisely when the bulk of the Democratic Party stopped being liberal, but I can tell you when its leadership and its loudest voices became implacable opposed to the elevation of human rights and the promotion of global liberalism. It occurred precisely when George W. Bush started expressing an enthusiasm for these themes.
Over the past five years, Democrats have refused to recognize that the debate over foreign policy goals is distinct from an assessment of operational competence. Conventional wisdom today reads every operational failure as a comment on the validity of the underlying ideas.
What passes for "debate" in Democratic foreign policy circles these days seems to pit those who miss Jimmy Carter's predilection for appeasing violent thugs while speaking gently to them against those seeking a return to BushBaker "Realism" of appeasing violent thugs while talking tough.
In early 2003, I tried to get various publications interested in my lament of the fall of liberalism. I found no takers, and eventually posted it on my own website. Since then, my concerns have only grown.
Eighteen months ago, I was an active participant in TPM Cafe. My constant dismay at the positions that I saw here--particularly on matters of foreign policy--convinced me that I was in the wrong place. Since then, I check in occasionally to see what people are saying about specific topics. I tuned in today to see what the Cafe thought about Robert Gates (a question that should be entirely distinct from what they may think about Rumsfeld). Your question articulates why I'm no longer a regular in these climes.
Thanks.
November 13, 2006 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
We know Bush will not leave Iraq, and we know that Iraq can't be won - at least not in the way we in the west would envision a win (i.e. a secular, pro-western democracy) - so where does that leave Gates?
The ability to 'fix the intelligence' as he did previously and keep us out of Iran?
November 14, 2006 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do you think it is good or a problem that a general, Hayden, is heading the CIA, and a former head of the CIA is about to lead the Pentagon?
Good. In that the Pentagon is the consumer for ~80% of the intelligence produced?
Gates, who was deputy national security adviser when he was appointed DCI, came to the job with his White House working relationships well established. In addition to enjoying the confidence of President George Bush and his national security adviser Brent Scowcroft, Gates had worked successfully with both Secretary of State James Baker and Secretary of Defense Richard Cheney and their principal subordinates during the event-filled first two-plus years of the Bush administration. He had won praise for running the NSC “Deputies Committee” during a period when that forum gained unusual prominence in policymaking and dramatic international developments formed a crucible that forged strong bonds of comity among Bush’s principal national security officials.
Armed with White House support, Gates was convinced the best course in dealing with top-level intelligence budget and program issues was to work closely with Secretary of Defense Cheney in reaching mutually agreed decisions. Gates was well aware of differences in culture and viewpoint between DOD and CIA officials, and of the differing perspectives among various community leaders. He fostered comity among the community leaders, commenting on occasion with satisfaction about the spirit of cooperation that he felt existed. He continued biweekly meetings with community leaders and held two offsite conferences where more strategic planning took place. This community leadership style was indeed similar to Casey’s. While not hesitating to take decisions on community matters, Gates often previewed his decisions, solicited comments, and avoided confrontational initiatives. Also, as shown in discussions and decisions regarding imagery, Gates demonstrated he was not tied to parochial CIA positions in all cases.
https://www.cia.gov/csi/books/dci_leaders_us_community_public/chapter_11.htm
November 14, 2006 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Poppy Rides to the Rescue!
The firing of Rumsfeld and muzzling of Cheney signals a not a new foreign policy but a return to the foreign policy so beloved by the main-stream media of Bush '41.
The Baker commission and Gates' hiring is a p.r. move to signal to both the country and world that the crazies are out and sober minded diplomats are in charge.
The problem of course is two-fold.
1. The war in Iraq is irretrevably lost. NOTHING we do at this point is going to salvage a viable democracy in Iraq. Instead the Baker commission is going to de facto carve up the country. This will be accompanied by rivers of blood, since the one thing the Sunnis HATE more than the Americans is idea that they will become this tiny rump state in the middle of the country -- with no oil. They will fight for a generation to prevent that.
Meanwhile Iran will supposedly rein in the Shiites and Syria the Sunnis, while the Kurds do God knows what.
This begs the question what incentive the Iranians have to cooperate with Bush. Unless the U.S. is prepared to negotiate a settlement with Iran on the question of their nuclear program, this plan is a non-starter.
That leaves only the de-facto partition of the country combined with symbolic troop withdrawals designed as P.R. moves with a coordinated media offensive to win back the ignorant and guillable American middle. Since the media never reports what's really going on in Iraq and you have to turn to internet news sources like Juan Cole's Informed Comment to learn the truth, it's a safe bet that whatever lies the new Bush team comes up with will be believed -- for about 1 year until it becomes clear again that the wheels are already off the wagon.
As for Democrats the arrive in the majority just in time to preside over the defeat. Think the right-wing and the media won't blame them for Bush's failure?
November 15, 2006 8:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Informationist says: What passes for "debate" in Democratic foreign policy circles these days seems to pit those who miss Jimmy Carter's predilection for appeasing violent thugs while speaking gently to them against those seeking a return to BushBaker "Realism" of appeasing violent thugs while talking tough."
What do you think accounts for this? Are there any foreign policy successes that are attributable to Democrats since the Vietnam debacle?
This is part of the problem, I see, with the partisian discourse. Folks do not address issues as Americans they instead only are able to provide polarized views that support their political party and that stifles debate. Hence, Democrats, have no foreign policy platform when engaged in discussing foreign policy strategies and goals. Americans need to return to discussing issues based on the country's needs not on a specific political agenda to maintain partisian power. America does have permanent interests independent of the partisian power struggle. Those need to be addressed. Otherwise we get wind up in Iraq and engaged in fabricated War on Terror.
Americans no longer focus on governance of our country and upholding the principles of our democracy. Good governance, liberties and citizenship rights have been pushed aside for the shallow and craven pursuit of partisian power to the detriment of democracy. This is why civil liberties and freedoms are being usurped as they have simply becoming bartering tools and pawns in a partisian power struggle of oneupmanship regarding 'national security' False swagger and bravado is reducing the nation to rule by despots and executive fiats.
Americans need to find the common grounds of national and global interest, not democratic and GOP interests. It is our responsiblity as citizens to working to ensure the democracy for us as citizens not as members of some partisan party to maintain power at the expense of the republic and citizens.
There has to be a return to Civics 101 or we will lose our democracy.
November 16, 2006 7:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
The division of Iraq is going on. It's arrogant to believe that we in The West can contribute with anything positive by trying to influence or change the ongoing partition.
What we can do, however, is to work for the protection of victimized civilians, for instance civilians in need of transfer to a safer neighborhood and in need of a tile to live of.
Yes, this would make us taking part in ethnic cleansing, but isn't that to prefer for being responsible for igniting massacres or genocide?
The process is to the advantage of Iran. Yes, but that's been obvious for years by now. Nothing we can do much about. Nothing worth to waste much ink on.
But remember that Arabs and Persians do have their own difficulties.
This is really one of the interesting and relevant questions.There is of course plenty of goodies that would be in America's power to offer Iran or Syria, like for instance weapons and retracted support for Israel. But would this administration be willing to do such concessions; and what would the opposition, the Democrats, say if they learned about it?
Bi-partisan is a code word for avoiding risks for both sides, but maybe most for the President?
November 16, 2006 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink