Silence on the Homefront
I've been reading the discussion about how the blogs have been quiet on the Lebanon/Israel fighting. I have read the responses to the few posts and now know why. I also remember the reaction to the Walt/Mershheimer piece (just a mere academic article, not miltiary exercises) and wonder whether it would be worth it.
For those of us with Lebanese blood, it has not been a happy week, whatever our politics. Lebanon, as always, is the proxy country for Middle East fighting and as I sort through the emails of friends and cousins trying to get out (thank you France and Germany!), this is too emotional on many levels. And while this may be too personal, I think the silence has to do with the rawness all sides feel; my husband is Jewish, and our conversations have been nearly as silent as this site.
But, I will ask these questions because I'm so surprised by the progressive response to this, in light of the progressive acknowledgement that military might will not solve these issues. So,
1)a progressive foreign policy put some merit on following international obligations and processes. Why, as a matter of politics, and in light of egregious Hezbollah activity, didn't Israel seek UN acknowledgement or asking before proceeding to direct action? And if Israel ought to be immune from those international constructs, we should say so directly.
2)Why can't progressives argue against the Gingrich this is WWIII or WWIV (I forget which number) attitde? I heard Newt on the TOday show, claiming that we can't be Neville Chamberlain like? Wasn't that his answer for going into Iraq?
3)Where was JOrdan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states before? They did nothing to proactively bolster Lebanon's attempts to stop Hezbollah and control its borders? Isn't this just about controlling Iran?
4)if yes, then fine, but shouldn't we then be saying that the NEED to control Iran is because of policy decisions made by this Administration since 2001, most of all Iraq. Why can't we connect the dots here; Iran feels empowered, and we've got to realize the policy decisions that led us to that point.
5)Do we (the US) have a plan? If progressives recognize the limitations of war to counter asymmetrical threats, and if our silence this week means that we will give Isreal another 7 days to route hezbollah, what then? Do we (the Administration) have a plan for how to lower the temperature even if we give Isreal the time it needs?



Comments (107)
State your piece, hold your ground, and take your lumps.
July 20, 2006 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
1) I think the Israeli gov't feels roughly the same way about the UN as conservatives in the U.S. do (think John Bolton), and probably even more so. I think they think that going to the UN is a symbol of weakness, that it has an anti-Israeli bias, and that it wouldn't do any good anyway. Bush wouldn't have gone to the UN before Iraq if he didn't have to for the optics and for the benefit of a few of our allies.
2) Where to begin? It's just such an overblown claim.
3) Good question. Also, where was the U.S. when we should have been helping Lebanon's democratically elected gov't deal with Hezbollah following Syria's withdrawal? (I know the answer is dealing with Iraq, but sometimes you have to keep multiple plates spinning at once, rather than letting the rest break to focus on one. It was the centerpiece of the Admin's democratic domino effect theory, wasn't it?)
4) Good point.
5) I think the Admin's plan is to let Israel stop whenever it's ready to stop, but send Condi over a few days in advance so that she can claim credit. It sounds like Israel doesn't want to put in ground forces or occupy Lebanon again, but I guess you never know. It's hard to see the Lebanese gov't working with the U.S. or Israel very well at this point, in terms of securing the border and disarming (or preventing the rearming of) Hezbollah.
July 20, 2006 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am reading the piece from the pew forum entitled "The Islamic Paradon: Religion and Democracy in the Middle East?|" It was a discussion panel done on May 24, 2005 over a year ago.
Jeffry Goldberg said then that the Lebanese government was told by Israel that "If Hezbollah attacks us over the border, we will attack the power stations that supply the entire country." Thus my question is why did Lebanon allow Hezbollah to arm with missles and rockets and why did Lebanon, a sovereign state, allow Hezbollah to murder and kidnap Israelis soldiers? Shouldn't Lebanon have asked the international community or the Arab league to help them oust Hezbollah?
When the United States was attacked on 9/11 I do not remember asking the worlds permission before annihilating the Taliban government of Afghanistan.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
July 20, 2006 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
1) Because Israel knows the US would veto anything that the UN could do to express displeasure over Israel's actions. Because they didn't have to.
2) While it is not a world war, it is a major conflict of reason vs. ideologies, extremists vs. moderates, unity vs. division. Other than that, let me just say that while I have no platform if anyone asks me, Newt is batshit crazy for believing this is WW3. If it turns out that way its because people like him want it to be.
3)To some extent they were obsessed with Iraq beacause Iraq has been going down the tubes for the last 3 years. Otherwise I don't know. It's about far more than controlling Iran.
4)I do not believe Iran is pulling strings here behind the scenes but yes, to the extent that Iran does feel empowered it's because Bush has pissed away 90% of American power in 6 years.
5)I'm fairly sure the US plan at this point is put your head between your knees and hope it blows over.
I'd hope personally that progessives would manage to stop Israel from attacking any more. Even if they are justified in attacking it doesn't mean they are doing the right thing. It might be sickening but sometimes you just have to take in the teeth and with the possibility of Hamas and the Palestinian people actually officially recognizing a two-state solution, this time I think that was what should have been done.
So there you go.
July 20, 2006 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
As I recall the US ran around showing lots of countries the evidence for Osama being the mastermind of 9/11 and for the Taliban harboring Osama quietly and without a lot of fuss. We even collaborated with the Iranians on securing the Afghan/Iran border. They did not want the Taliban rushing into their territory after all.
July 20, 2006 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hezbollah "murders" and kidnaps whilst Israel engages in "targetted assassinations" and "indefinite detentions"
So who is the terrorist?
July 20, 2006 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
All good questions, but the premises are that this wasn't planned for larger strategic objectives that have little to do with Hizballah or Hamas (not to say that the latter aren't objectives as well, especially for Israel) - certainly on the US side of things, and probably on the Israeli side.
Iran is certainly the centerpiece of the strategic concern of both the US and Israel. While Israel may have a more immediate concern with Hizballah, they tie Hizballah to Iran - with obviously valid reasons, but more so since Israel views Iran as their major competitor in the ME geopolitical sweepstakes.
The US of course couldn't care less about Hizballah except for the same reasons - to establish that Iran supports terrorism and allow the US to ratchet up the rhetoric towards starting a war with Iran for ITS own reasons.
Without considering the background motivations, the actions of the US and Israel cannot be understood.
Some people, such as Juan Cole, are even suggesting that the real goal of Israel is to drive the Shia population of Southern Lebanon north towards Beirut and cause a humanitarian crisis in order to establish another buffer zone in the south.
Others have suggested the reason Israel wants to drive the Shia north of the Litani River is simply to seize control of that river, which has been a source of water rights disputes for years. Who knows? Personally, I'm inclined to think the timing of this indicates much larger goals than mere water rights.
As I've said before, if you don't know why what's going on is going on, you need to reconsider your premises - and ask, "Cui bono?"
As for Gingrich, he's a side issue of no consequence. It's the general neocon braying that needs to be countered.
I also find it amusing that Israel claims the UN is "biased" against it. After Israel has ignored literally dozens of UN resolutions, it wouldn't be surprising if the UN WERE "biased" against Israel, in the same manner that the neocons want it to be "biased" against Iran for merely arguing about their rights in the NPT.
As for Jordon, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, what would they gain by trying to get between the Lebanese government and Hizballah? All that would do is put them at odds with Syria and Iran. And what could they do in any event - put soldiers on the ground? No one is going to disarm Hizballah without dealing with Shia issues in Lebanon - something Saudi Arabia is hardly in a position to do credibly. Those countries have no motivation and little leverage to do anything in Lebanon.
The notion that Israel only needs another week to "route" Hizballah is naive at best. Israel always says they can easily defeat Hizballah. The reality is very different. Israel is claiming today that half of Hizballah's resources are destroyed - yesterday it was a third. Tomorrow it may be three-quarters. A week from now, Hibzallah will still be firing rockets and Israel will be "requiring" several more weeks to "finish" Hibzallah.
Analysts estimate Hizballah has used barely three percent of its rockets so far. Israel's claims of how much it has destroyed have been described as "wishful thinking." Some analysts believe Hizballah has enough weapons to hold out "for months", certainly longer than the week the US has allegedly given Israel, or the two weeks Israel is claiming it needs. Israel is not saying that a full-scale ground invasion is off the table either, given that Hizballah is proving to be very resilient.
And even if Israel can manage to identify and destroy the bulk of Hizballah's heavy weapons, there is nothing stopping Hizballah from rearming, whether the roads are destroyed or not - it will just be harder. Hisballah can merely wait for Israel to cease airstrikes and resume rearming.
In the meantime, it's light weapons remain in its possession. If people think removing the Katyushas means Hizballah can be "disarmed" by anybody, they are making a serious tactical mistake. There is no evidence any significant number of Hizballah's 5,000 fighters have been killed, given that Israel seems to be expending the bulk of its air attacks on the Lebanese infrastructure.
These should all be obvious points that are, as usual, being ignored by the MSM.
July 20, 2006 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Israel's war on Lebanon's civilian infrastructure has nothing to do with these questions, NOR justifications that pro-Israelis are offering such as securing the release of "kidnapped" soldiers. This is merely Israel's attempt to start a war with Iran which will inevitably drag the US into it.
SOURCE: http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=33983Also, read more here:
http://www.upi.com/InternationalIntelligence/view.php?StoryID=20060719-045837-5200r
July 20, 2006 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pessimism aside:
(1) Israeli position, I believe, is that this is "open war". Once hostility has begun on one's own territory, ie. involving taking of prisoners, UN permission is not needed for self-defense. Legally, this is true, international laws of war do not require UN permission to respond to hostilities, NOR UN consultation.
(2) it might not be WWIII, but it's still pretty ugly war. Conservatives like Gingrich may like to play with words to spin it as worse or better for their purposes, I don't think Progressives, Moderates, or Liberals should waste too much energy and time on it. It's "Open Hostility", getting more OPEN and more Hostile by the minute. That's all.
(3) I think the other Gulf States were reluctant to go too active in Lebanon because of fear of getting too involved. No doubt Israel and US didn't want the Gulf States to get too involved in Lebanon either. Syria just left Lebanon, and US and Israel didn't want another government sticking its hand in Lebanon.
(4) the need to control is not just for Iran. It's for every nation. That's just geopolitics. And of course, US will never admit it. If it's not Iran, it's North Korea, then it's China, then it's Russia, then it's someone else, so on so forth.
(5) NO, no plans. Bush is the fly by seat of his pants kind of guy, except, he just got a little gun shy from the whole North Korea ordeal. Playing hardball with Kim Jong Il takes a lot out of a Texan. Israel doesn't have a plan either. They are just HOPING that Hezbollah will give up some time soon. Bush is hoping that Syria will somehow solve the Hezbollah problem for the rest of the world. Kinda of the same way he hoped that China would solve the North Korean problem for US.
It's like the South Park Underwear Gnome business plan: Step (1) bomb somebody, ..., Step (3) Mission accomplished.
July 20, 2006 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The second link was particularly good, thanks.
July 20, 2006 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thus my question is why did Lebanon allow Hezbollah to arm with missles and rockets and why did Lebanon, a sovereign state, allow Hezbollah to murder and kidnap Israelis soldiers?
The obvious answer would be that the idea of 'allowing Hezbollah' implies and ability to disallow them, and the Lebanese government, hopeful but tenuous as it was, was really in no position to stop them. Hezbollah has a lot of popular support - and also a lot of popular opposition - and the civil war is still too raw, the tensions still too close under the surface, the peace still too fragile and the alternative too unthinkable to take a strong stand against them.
You may say it was irresponsible, but when something is out of your power to change, it's out of your power to change.
Incidentally, the Lebanese friends I've been talking to started out fairly pissed off with Hezbollah when this started - and most still are.
July 20, 2006 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Plus we issued an ultimatum allowing the Taliban the choice of solving the problem without war by arresting bin Laden.
July 20, 2006 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does Hezbollah, perhaps, have extensive command, control, communications, and intelligence facilities running on power-hungry computer? Do they have major arms factories with electrical furnaces?
Indeed, is the threat to the Government of Lebanon so severe because the power stations also service the civilian population and government services? Have you consulted Article 33 of the Fourth Geneva Convention, which states "No protected person may be punished for an offense he or she has not personally committed," and "collective penalties and likewise all measures of intimidation or of terrorism are prohibited."
US attacks on the power system of Iraq in 1991 were criticized as well, but the justification made was of military necessity in disabling the radars and radios of the Iraqi air defense network. There is some evidence that part, not all, of the weapons selection and targeting were intended to damage but not destroy the power grid. Certain parts were definitely destroyed by Coalition action.
As far as I know, Hezbollah has no extensive air defense network, so it is not clear what military necessity could be claimed by Israel. Attacking the power plants has a definite flavor of collective punishment.
In international relations, there is a generally accepted doctrine of hot pursuit. If a force attacks one country and then shelters in another, the protecting government can be asked to deny sanctuary. Should that not happen, as in Cambodia, Laos, and Afghanistan, the aggrieved country can invade the other country and carry out military acts reasonably proportionate to destroying the force that attacked them. Exactly, although there was some attempt both to get diplomatic consensus, and also to ask the Taliban to extradite al-Qaeda. The Taliban actively participated in fighting with al-Qaeda, which made them co-targets in hot pursuit. This contrasts with some of the situations in Southeast Asia, where the Cambodian and Laotian military stayed out of the fighting and were not attacked.
Had Israel been attacked by Hezbollah and invaded Lebanon, with the invasion clearly aimed at Hezbollah strong points, I believe Israel would have every right to do that. Israel would not have a right to attack facilities not supporting Hezbollah. Such attacks would appear to be collective punishment.
The most appropriate action for Lebanon, when presented with Israel's ultimatum, would be to take it to the US Security Council. That's a bit more specific than "to the international community or Arab League." I do not have the information on the relative military capabilities of Lebanon or Hezbollah to judge if Lebanon would have been capable of ejecting Hezbollah.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
July 20, 2006 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Juliette,
I've run into a surprising number of people in the last 10 days who have ties of family or friends to Lebanon.
You should have added a point on what explains the callousness in the face of over hundred thousand refugees and hundreds of civilian deaths.
And what is it now, over 50,000 Iraqi deaths?
It also boggles my mind how casually people accept talk of WWIII.
This must be how WWI started. I can't explain it but I will not vote for it.
July 20, 2006 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup, the Slashdot version:
1) Bomb Lebanon.
2) ????
3) PROFIT!!!
July 20, 2006 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, Lebanon cannot effectively police Hezbollah; and Lebanon therefor cannot ensure reciprocation of any hypothetical negotiations for recovery of the two Israeli soldiers, despite Israel's ability to punish the host state (see, e.g., Bapat 2006).
July 20, 2006 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Say what??????????????/
July 20, 2006 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen Juliette as they say in the Corner. Today the Lobby flexed its muscle in the House of Representatives a massive show of support for the Slaughter
Voters for Peace http://www.votersforpeace.us/
July 20, 2006 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd say we have been discussing Lebanon plenty. Hardly silence here.
It's been pointed out that Syria only left Lebanon recently (one year ago?). The government is tenuous at best. It is, rather than a failed state, a rehabilitating state. Its competence was still compromised, in that the Syrian withdrawal did not include Hezbollah.
The government's moral authority has to be backed with manpower, which is the missing element. Israel of course knows this, so their actions in holding a convalescing country accountable for a situation not really of its making are without legitimacy.
Certainly there is political pressure to act but it is a failure of imagination and courage to simply lash out at Lebanon, instead of putting its soldiers where its outrage is, and facing Hezbollah the hard but effective way, on the ground.
Using Israel's rationale, that Lebanon is responsible, leads to the conclusion that Lebanon cannot meet the charge, which leads to the need to occupy and set up a government. Since this is definitely not wanted by Israel her politicians are being dishonest with the people, promising results without hard work.
BTW, again we have to be the laughingstock of the world, with our citizens hepled little, and grudgingly.
July 20, 2006 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Israel I fear has signed its own death warrant. What is happening now is not just the creation of another failed state and hellish 4GW in Lebanon, as deadly as that is, I think that we are witnessing a major blow to nation-state structures throughout the region. For it is clear that thanks to the US War on Iraq and now the US/Israeli wars on Palestine and Lebanon, that it is non-state actors who will be strengthened throughout the region. It is non-state actors that are standing against Israel and the US and the wave of political Islam that begain in Iraq and rippled through Palestine, Lebanon, and even Egypt is not even close to crest.
US/Israeli policy in the region is forming a Crescent of Shiite Power from the Persian Gulf to the Mediteranean. Iraq, in my estimation, will not last the year. This time next year, there will be no Iraq as we know it.
It is increasingly likely that the State of Israel as we know it will along with Saudi Arabia, Jordan Egypt will no long exist either.
Voters for Peace http://www.votersforpeace.us/
July 20, 2006 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Listen if you are able to Bob Shrum and Pat Buchanan's exchange on Hardball. Now Shrum has a gift for words, but he stumbled all over himself trying to avoid any criticism of Israel to the point when he ran out room to maneuver, he basically admitted that the ethnic cleansing of Southern Lebanon and the destruction of the state was no consequence to him (or the Lobby bought democratic party)
This post should draw "Zeros" and answer your question.
Voters for Peace http://www.votersforpeace.us/
July 20, 2006 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
PS Juliette - I've not been silent, but I am curious about one thing. Given your background and notable past appearances, have you received any inviations to appear on MSNBC? Their coverage is incredibly biased.
It is One War, One Plan, One Lobby, Many many lies
Voters for Peace
http://www.votersforpeace.us/
July 20, 2006 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Major arms factories with electrical furnaces"? Hezbollah? You're talking about a militia with 600-1000 fighters, not Wilhelmine Germany, for Christ's sake. So I hope that was a joke, Berkowitz.
July 20, 2006 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
The silence has been deafening.
Not on this blog, of course (e.g., Jo-Ann's excellent post earlier today), but take Atrios, for example. (Sorry to pick on you, Duncan, but you've been one of the worst offenders.)
The man has temporarily moved to some sort of political Disneyland where the thrilling rides are: the sunday talk shows' lineups; the lamont fundraising; Bush's gala fundraiser; corruption among politicians, etc.
Hello, Duncan. Look outside your windown. Yes, it's the world that's burning. Too scared to tackle the BIG ISSUE of the day?
Sean Hannity today was all about Lebanon; but our courageous liberal bloggers are on summer recess.
And just because the issue might be too... divisive. Poor darlings, or to use one of Duncan's fave words: Pathetic wankers!
July 20, 2006 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Call it sarcasm. If Hezbollah did have such factories, which I know they don't, then there would be a military justification for attacking electrical plants. It was Mr. Greenbaum that said Israel had threatened Lebanon's electrical plants if they did not expel Hezbollah.
Since there's no particular evidence that the electrical plants are critical to Hezbollah operations, I'm more inclined to call the attacks collective punishment. And what does the Fourth Geneva Convention say about collective punishment?
Had Israeli forces entered Lebanon in hot pursuit of Hezbollah forces, I'd consider that an action in keeping with customary international law and practice.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
July 20, 2006 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
His question was rhetorical, pointing out that Hizballah has no such needs, so threatening Lebanon's power plants was pointless. It was merely pressure on Lebanon to do what Israel knows it cannot do.
July 20, 2006 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
So Lebanon is not responsible for the acts done from its terority? Goldberg's statement was in the context that Hezbollah, like all the Islamists are committed to the extermination of Jews from the Middle East. The warning to Lebanon was to get Lebanon to keep Hezbollah from killing Israelis. A point you seem to ignore.
There is also the matter of eliminating Hezbollahs ability to get rearmed. All the apologists for the killing of Israelis have not seemed to notice the amount of weaponry Hezbollah has. Why does not a non-nation state, operating within a sovereign state, have this sort of armamen?
I am deeply grateful that Israel is not dependent on the approval of the American left of its existence.
I am a bit curious, when 3,000 Americans were murdered you would have do what to Afghanistan?
Daniel A. Greenbaum
July 20, 2006 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Downrated for rightist trash talk.
July 20, 2006 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm coming to the conclusion that this is the goal of the Zionists and the neocons: to reduce the ME to "chaos", with few or no viable statee of any kind except Israel.
This in turn will justify the state's usual excuse, as exemplified by Chancellor Sutler in the movie "V for Vendetta:"
"I want EVERYONE to remember WHY THEY NEED US!"
The Zionists, the IDF, the neocons, the US military (not to mention the US military/industrial complex) - in general, the state itself NEEDS enemies.
The Zionists and the US intend to create more and more of those enemies, as long as they are enemies without the power to actually conduct STATE levels of warfare, i.e., actually BE threats to the power of those running the state (at least in their view.)
"Terrorism" is the ultimate state con - the unending "Long War" of "1984".
What these morons forget is history. As Dorian Gray said in the movie "League of Extraordinary Gentlemen" last night in my DVD player, "I've lived long enough to know. Empires crumble. There are NO exceptions."
The state continues, of course, because that is part of the human irrational condition.
But while the US thinks the brunt of their blowback will be felt by Israel, sooner or later someone will sneak an Israeli nuke into Washington, D.C., too.
The Israelis are even more stupid for not realizing that Washington is essentially sacrificing them for its own ends, just as the "Christian Zionists" intend to in their fantasy.
July 20, 2006 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
First, a question, not a challenge. What is the capability of the nascent Lebanese forces, since Syrian troops left, to expel Hezbollah? I don't have force ratios.
If Lebanon did not have the capability to expel them, much as Cambodia and Laos had no capability to expel the NVA and Viet Cong, than it is appropriate for the nation being attacked to take direct military action against the invader of the country giving sanctuary.
If the government is more than a passive sanctuary, such as the Taliban that fought side-by-side with al-Qaeda, then the defending government is a legitimate target under hot pursuit. This is exactly what happened when 3,000 American were murdered by al-Qaeda forces operating with Taliban support. It is not what happened when the NVA attacked South Vietnam, and the armed forces of Laos and Cambodia were impotent but took no active role in protecting the invading force.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
July 20, 2006 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, well there are those 50,000 Iraqi dead to install a government that has a harsher view of Israel than the American left or the European left for that matter. See how well collective punishment works.
July 20, 2006 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The man has temporarily moved to some sort of political Disneyland where the thrilling rides are: the sunday talk shows' lineups; the lamont fundraising; Bush's gala fundraiser; corruption among politicians, etc."
Have you read Josh's front page lately?
I've been floggin the Iran issue here for months, and Josh has barely mentioned the issue a half dozen times on the front page. Almost all the contributors have denounced the very notion of a war on Iran.
This current war is directly related to that and how much has it been discussed on the front page? Where's Ivo Daalder?
On the front page, it's still "all Republican corruption all the time".
Of course the same accusation could be made against me, since I don't really care about Republican corruption and haven't commented that much on it. However, my excuse is that Republican - in fact, all political - corruption is a "given" and thus isn't that exciting, however much it should be covered for obvious reasons.
I'd say war is something else again.
Josh pretty clearly covered the Iraq war in some detail, as I recall. What is it about this war that doesn't merit more discussion?
Not that it matters a whole lot, the TPM Cafe is certainly hashing it out in ribald manner.
July 20, 2006 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the US does have a plan. Our representatives pledged allegiance to Israel in a 410-8 vote. You can read the full policy here.
Here is the heart of it:
Resolved, That the House of Representatives--
(1) reaffirms its steadfast support for the State of Israel;
(2) condemns Hamas and Hezbollah for engaging in unprovoked and reprehensible armed attacks against Israel on undisputed Israeli territory, for taking hostages, for killing Israeli soldiers, and for continuing to indiscriminately target Israeli civilian populations with their rockets and missiles;
(3) further condemns Hamas and Hezbollah for cynically exploiting civilian populations as shields, locating their equipment and bases of operation, including their rockets and other armaments, amidst civilian populations, including in homes and mosques;
(4) recognizes Israel's longstanding commitment to minimizing civilian loss and welcomes Israel's continued efforts to prevent civilian casualties;
(5) demands the Governments of Iran and Syria to direct Hamas and Hezbollah to immediately and unconditionally release Israeli soldiers which they hold captive;
(6) affirms that all governments that have provided continued support to Hamas or Hezbollah share responsibility for the hostage-taking and attacks against Israel and, as such, should be held accountable for their actions;
(7) condemns the Governments of Iran and Syria for their continued support for Hezbollah and Hamas in their armed attacks against Israelis and their other terrorist activities;
(8) supports Israel's right to take appropriate action to defend itself, including to conduct operations both in Israel and in the territory of nations which pose a threat to it, which is in accordance with international law, including Article 51 of the United Nations Charter;
(9) commends the President of the United States for fully supporting Israel as it responds to these armed attacks by terrorist organizations and their state sponsors;
(10) urges the President of the United States to bring the full force of political, diplomatic, and economic sanctions available to the Government of the United States against the Governments of Syria and Iran;
(11) demands the Government of Lebanon to do everything in its power to find and free the kidnapped Israeli soldiers being held in the territory of Lebanon;
(12) calls on the United Nations Security Council to condemn these unprovoked acts and to take action to ensure full and immediate implementation of United Nations Security Council 1559 (2004), which requires Hezbollah to be dismantled and the departure of all Syrian personnel and Iranian Revolutionary Guards from Lebanon;
(13) expresses its condolences to all families of innocent victims of recent violence; and
(14) declares its continued commitment to working with Israel and other United States allies in combating terrorism worldwide.
Sounds like our plan is to back Israel in whatever it does and start trying to expand the conflict to Syria and Iran.
July 20, 2006 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, you can see what rated unlucky (13).
July 20, 2006 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
(1) We need to reassure the Lobby - they're so sensitive, you know.
(2) Don't ask us about Iraq - this is about Israel.
(3) Ditto.
(4) I've gotta step aside and laugh here for a bit, excuse me...
Okay, back to the point.
(6) Read: time to attack Syria and Iran!
(7) Ditto...
(8) In other words, kill civilians for no (rational) reason.
(9) Support the President in supporting a state that kills civilians for no (rational) reason.
(10) Ramp up the rhetoric on Iran.
(11) Pressure Lebanon to do something it can't, so as to justify further Israeli aggression.
(12) Ditto, with the added effort of ramping up the rhetoric on Syria and Iran.
(13) Sorry - another attack... Okay, I'm better now...
(14) Oh, by the way, did we say we supported Israel?
If anybody thinks the US government isn't a party to this by now, they need to develop remedial reading skills.
In my view, the House of Representatives and the US government in general are now complicit in every single war crime the Israelis commit in Lebanon.
Big surprise, given the war crimes already committed in Iraq by the US, with the full approval of Democrats and Republicans in both Houses.
July 20, 2006 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
410-8 !
Ah the sweet smell of democracy!
(Note to FBI: there are 8 terrorists in the US Congress.)
July 20, 2006 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Question 2:
PS - Attacks on US forces in Iraq up 40%, Baghdad morgue is rejecting bodies; anger builds at US/Israel; PM denounces Israel; Operation Forward Together formally declared a failureIraq has 6 monts12 topsand all that South Iraq oil money ...how much will Hezbollah and Hamas get?Israel decides on a strategy of preemptive chaos.
Voters for Peace http://www.votersforpeace.us/
July 20, 2006 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Question 2:
Voters for Peace
http://www.votersforpeace.us/
July 20, 2006 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yup. Especially now with the imminent demise of what's left of Iraq. The Southern Oil fields that cannot pump .50/bbl oil, cannot fill Hamas and Hezbollah coffers.
But hey as your Senator and mine said - our good relations with Israel are "crucisl to the stabiliity of the Middle East", making $6 gallon gas, a bargain at twice the price, is good for the environment.
Voters for Peace
http://www.votersforpeace.us/
July 20, 2006 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just today I was thinking about how closely this resembles the start of WWI. All that it takes for the process to actually produce such a war is for Syria to intervene in Lebanon by attacking the Israeli forces. Then the US intervenes to "protect" Israel as we are apparently bound to do by treaty. Then the other Moslem states intervene to protect Syria as they are apparently bound to do by treaty. This leaves Europe fearful of a truly aroused Moslem Middle East knocking at their doors, so they intervene as NATO obliges them to do. Thus, WWIII. And, all for nothing. (I tried to tell people that electing a nincompoop as President back in 2000 could be a major disaster.)
Hoppy in Sacramento
July 20, 2006 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's sad because this is the very same election-year phenomenon that occurred prior to the Iraq war. Democrats are desperate to fight their political battles on domestic policy grounds, which are winners for them. Many of them seem to retreat into denial and avoidance during international crises.
The big delusion-fest of this summer is the "Condi's in charge now" and "return to realism" refrain. Same old complacency; same old sleepy liberal daydreams to ease away the hours as the nightmare looms.
They can't seem to wrap their minds around how much our country as changed, and the utter, vile fanaticism of the people at the top. They all know some low or mid-level bureaucrat - maybe some friend from college - who tells them "oh, its all getting back to normal now". However, none of these nice moderate ladies and gents seems to know Bush personally; none of them know Cheney; none of them know Eliot Abrams; none of them know Bolton. They've talked themselves into believing that the old pros are back in charge - but it hasn't happened. The two guys with the top jobs, who call the ultimate shots, haven't changed at all.
Our country has undergone a hostile takeover; and I believe the people who run it are preparing to unleash some really nasty shit. The nice guys in the professional class are stumbling around slack-jawed and uncomprehending, mumbling "it's getting better...it will go away." But it isn't going away.
July 20, 2006 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
At this point, there's no likelihood of a Syrian attack against Israel in Lebanon. The Syrian military is undermanned, undertrained, underfunded with obsolete equipment. It could barely muster forces to the Turkish border when tensions were high there. It has refused to challenge Israeli incursions into its airspace, even when Israel has dropped bombs. It's clear that Hezbollah is acting without Syrian instructions as its own agent. Syria has no wish whatsoever to be dragged into this war and will not enver voluntarily.
Much more likely, Israel will launch air strikes against Syria in order to to protect their flanks in Lebanon from a possible Syrian attack. This would arise either from an excess of paranoia, or from a deliberate choice to take out Syria.
At this point, the real risk factor becomes the Syrian response. If they sit and take it, it might go quiet. On the other hand, if Syria makes any kind of military response then things get complicated.
At the very least, we've got an Israel/Syria/Hezbollah fracas. Ugly, lots of casualties. If the United States weighs in on Syria's side then Assad is finished. But Iran is in.
Iran has stated publicly that an attack by Israel on Syria will be considered an attack by the United States on Syria. In that case, Iran will consider itself at war with the U.S.
The likely Iranian tactic will be to close the strait of Hormuz, attack Iraq and Afghanistan.
Then things get nasty...
July 20, 2006 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
The good news is that Israel and Syria are being very careful about directing any fighting toward each other. Also what treaty obligates the United States to defend Isreal? While the Soviets fought for Egypt I am not aware of Americans every fighting for Israel.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
July 20, 2006 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The claim is that the Lebanese government is so weak they are not able to oust Hezbollah. However Hezbollah sits in the Parliament and holds two cabinet seats. They are hardly passive actors in Lebanon.
That is probably why there is defacto support for Israel's efforts to weak Hezbollah by Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. One of the very disappointing things about this site is that the fantasy that it is all Israel's fault or that if only the Israelis would work things out with the Palestinians ignores many of the other issues in the Middle East that have nothing to do with Israel.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
July 20, 2006 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Add support for wise democracy the the list of Purple State (or Transhuman)
meaning, so Muslim would exercise their democratic opportunities (if any) wisely, rather than supporting creeps resembling Dr. Dobson.
July 20, 2006 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just when I'm to despair that no one else in America sees the moral issues the way I do, Jim Rice, editor of Sojourners weighs in:
July 20, 2006 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think every president from Truman on has said we wil defend Israel if it is attacked. And, I know Bush or one of his spokesmen has already said that in discussing the current fighting. So, I assume there must be a treaty involved?
Hoppy in Sacramento
July 20, 2006 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
By a long habit, Atrios has tried to avoid topics that he thinks will be controversial among his readers. He has gained his readership by telling his readers what he thinks they want to hear and avoiding topics that might divide them or challenge them to think. He knows his customer base, and gives them the product they are looking for.
So for years, he has mostly stayed away from discussions about Israel. He was also one of the few political bloggers not to express a preference among the Democratic presidential contenders.
July 20, 2006 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Read Haaretz/...
PLease...
Please...
please...
July 20, 2006 9:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think I may speak for those of us who've lost (many) family members in WWII when I say that I DEEPLY RESENT Gingrich's comment about WWIII. World wars are not catchwords one bounces around lightly for effect. I know Gingrich's political career is one giant uphill battle (screwing your assistant while your wife is dying of cancer rarely helps), and irresponsible talk is second nature to that bloated buffoon. But I won't cut that jerk any slack. World wars mean something to some of us, and to see the unctuous Newt slither his way to the cameras with cheap talk about holocaust and mass deaths makes me want to puke.
The thing is, if Newt wants to behave like a 10 year old, given his visibility, that's my problem, too. So I'll do all I can to make sure that's his problem, too.
July 20, 2006 10:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The claim is that the Lebanese government is so weak they are not able to oust Hezbollah. However Hezbollah sits in the Parliament and holds two cabinet seats. They are hardly passive actors in Lebanon."
And this logic works how?
Hizballah has 1,000-5,000 hardened guerrilla fighters and the support of a good portion of the Shia who make up 30-50% of the Lebanese population.
The Jerusalem Post has an article saying the following:
"While the Lebanese military does have certain resources at its disposal - a naval fleet, for instance, and an infantry force that has been largely supplied by America in an attempt to bolster the country against Syria - it is not, according to sources, a force to be reckoned with.
According to the Jaffee Center's Middle East Military Balance, there are 64,000 members of Lebanon's armed forces, which has 36 helicopters, four shoulder-launched missiles, 27 naval patrol crafts, 350 tanks, 1,380 mechanized infantry vehicles, and 335 artillery pieces.
Benjamin Ryan, an American journalist living in Beirut, said he did not believe Lebanon's mechanized infantry, at least, was capable of restoring order in the south.
Walking past a Lebanese military post, Ryan said, he "did a double take."
"A fleet of HMMWVs [Humvees] and APCs [armored personnel carriers] stood in the parking lot. The door on one of the APCs - the big one that swings down to disgorge the troops inside - had a lot of camouflage paint chipping off. Underneath, the door itself was wood," he said.
Wooden vehicles aside, "The Lebanese army does has strength," said Moshe Marzuk, senior researcher at the International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Herzliya's Interdisciplinary Center.
"Its impotence isn't in its military capabilities, but in its internal politics," he said.
Inbar echoed those sentiments. "This is not a question of military capability, but of political will," he said. "
Actually, it IS a question of military capability, since if the Lebanese Army tried to take Hibzallah, first of all, the Lebanese Army would probably fracture along sectarian lines, and secondly, if Hizballah started an insurgency against the Lebanese Army, the odds of the Lebanese Army surviving it would be bleak if the maximum number of combat troops they could throw against Hibzallah is no more than 10,000-15,000 or so (out of 64,000 total, most probably aren't combat troops as in most militaries.) The 10-to-1 requirement for suppression of an insurgency also assumes competency which I doubt the Lebanese Army possesses.
In other words, if the Israeli Army couldn't defeat them while they occupied the country, how the hell does anybody think 64,000 poorly trained Lebanese military will do it?
It's ridiculous.
July 20, 2006 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I read it. Good piece by Gideon Levy.
The consensus will probably be the guy must be "anti-Semitic."
July 20, 2006 10:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
One, I'm quite certain there's no treaty. But the US-Israel tie wasn't always that strong. Go back and look in the 60s. A very different picture.
July 20, 2006 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
2)Why can't progressives argue against the Gingrich this is WWIII or WWIV (I forget which number) attitde? I heard Newt on the TOday show, claiming that we can't be Neville Chamberlain like? Wasn't that his answer for going into Iraq?
Between Gingrich referring to the events transpiring in the ME as the start of WWIII and now Senator Santorum framing (courtesy of MY's "Wingnuttery" post of today...my apologies no link) in the current events in that region in terms of what transpired in the Middle-Ages and the Crusades it appears a case is being made that this is the start of a global battle of Islam vs. Judeo-Christianity. When in fact it is just Muslim Extremists vs. Judeo-Christian extremists who want to frame current events as such...the direction the "official" rhetoric has taken is VERY disturbing.
Is this the start of a new "Crusade"?
July 20, 2006 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
You must be joking.
Syria knows its relative miitary capabilities vs Israel's. They'd no more attack Israel's forces than you would attack Mike Tyson (I'm assuming you aren't as big or a pro boxer.)
And we have no treaty to defend Israel whatsoever.
What we have is a President that has three or four times said we will anyway. Why not? None of HIS kids are going to die for Israel. None of HIS money is going to be spent on such a war.
Iran does have a mutual defense treaty with Syria. Personally, I suspect that if Syria is attacked by Israel, Iran would basically back off from that treaty - although I'm sure they would up their efforts to support Syria and Hizballah with supplies, etc. But they wouldn't militarily enter the war.
If Iran is attacked, I would expect Syria to do the same.
In other words I suspect their treaty is more about "moral support" than actually getting killed.
Now if BOTH countries were to get dragged into this, the story would change slightly. I'm sure they would cooperate to some degree depending on circumstances.
Europe wouldn't intervene at all in this unless Israel started throwing nukes.
The US however would immediately attack Iran for its own purposes, and either attack Syria, or support Israel in doing so.
That's the REAL danger - and possibly the real PURPOSE - in this situation - to drag the US into - or provide an excuse for, which is more likely - a war with Iran.
July 20, 2006 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure that if Syria is attacked by Israel that Iran will automatically weigh on the Syrian side, still less against Israel or the US, regardless of the mutual defense treaty.
I suspect the risk to Iran will be considered too great. Of course, they will be criticized for not coming to the defense of another Muslim state being attacked by the Israelis, but I still think they would weigh the potential costs of attacking Israel, let alone the US, directly merely over a treaty.
I also doubt that Iran would bother attacking US troops in Afghanistan when Iraq is so much closer.
I think if Israel attacks Syria that Syria will be left to go it alone - although Iran will undoubtedly try to ship weapons to them and support Hizballah more in order to keep the front against Israel busy and relieve pressure on Syria and support the war in other ways than overtly entering it on Syria's side.
But I could be wrong. And if I am, then, yes, that would immediately bring the US into the war. I think the US would either let Israel handle Syria or support Israel in that, while concentrating its forces on Iran.
July 20, 2006 10:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed about the history.
If Israel attacks Syria, I think the US would let Israel handle that itself and stay out of it.
Only if Iran entered the picture would the US attack Iran for the US's own purposes, and, secondarily, Syria in support of Israel.
July 20, 2006 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree completely.
"The big delusion-fest of this summer is the "Condi's in charge now" and "return to realism" refrain."
As Dan Rather put it, the street is littered with the corpses of those who underestimated Dick Cheney's ability to regain control of the Administration.
This whole Lebanon thing is clearly a slap in the face of Rice and the Iran "diplomacy" crowd, both from the Israelis and from Cheney and from the neocons.
July 20, 2006 10:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
It may surprise you, but Newts can live out of the warter only a very short time.
Neoboho
July 21, 2006 12:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here are My Thoughts...
July 21, 2006 12:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is an article all Americans should read. It is all too often that Israel is blamed for the acts of Likud. How many on this board wish to be painted with the brush of GW Bush and his neoconnivers? Most of the world understands this in regards to America, and when dissents to American actions in the world are stated, they are often qualified with references to Bush.
This is an understanding woefully absent in American discussions regarding Israel. Honourable Israeli military personnel, who fervently believe their country's course is wrong, have chosen prison over serving in action they believe to be criminal.
It is not anti-Israel to be opposed to the warmongery of the Likud Party. I would claim that the opposite is true, because their actions of today can only lead to more hatred of Israel tomorrow. There is no peace down this pathway.
A recent Editorial of the Lebanese paper, The Daily Star, which is certainly not anti-west in their views, offers a lucid depiction of the current Israeli military operations' counter-productivity:
Again I implore America to turn to its own dreamtime:
If it ceases being about Liberty and Justice For All,
we are lost.
July 21, 2006 1:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Seth,
Thank you for the link. I would plead, however, with you and other people who post links without any explanation why the link is important, to give a couple of sentences about it. Unfortunately, there are too many people that do this to send the reader to some confused multi-thousand page diatribe.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
July 21, 2006 3:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
With what could reasonably be called demonic insight, Hitler extracted an oath to his person from his military officers, who came from a culture in which oaths were terribly important. This was one of the major deterrents to joining the July 20, 1944 assassination and coup plots.
It was not uncommon, in both the pre-Nazi and Nazi militaries, for an officer who had lost his honor, perhaps from oathbreaking, to find, on his desk, a bottle of whiskey and a pistol with one shot. This was not unheard of in the British or French militaries.
Of course, suicide as a means of restoring honor, but also as a means of protest, was even more of a Japanese tradition.
Somewhat different circumstances affect US officers. There is a very strong culture of not taking public disagreement with civilian authority, without resigning one's commission or retiring. While there was much public dismay over the firing of Douglas MacArthur, and the less well know firing of MG Edwin Walker, it was well accepted inside the military. MacArthur, and a young major named Patton, were much criticized inside the Army for their actions in dispersing the Bonus Marchers in 1932.
Something that I consider a must-read on the internal military decisionmaking during Viet Nam, including new interviews and documents about how some officers agonized about whether they could be more effective from the outside or as a retired critic, is COL HR McMaster's (a serving Army officer) Dereliction of Duty: Johnson, McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies That Led to Vietnam. McMaster, a PhD in history just having returned from commanding 3rd US Armored Cavalry Regiment in Iraq, is higly respected in the military both as a warrior and as a scholar. Among the soldiers I know, all expect him to go to the highest rank. He's well known for a decisive engagement with Iraqi tanks at the 1991 Battle of 73 Easting, but less known, outside the military, for actions a few days later. In the second incident, he ordered his unit not to fire, and, through an interpreter, convinced a dug-in Republican Guard unit to surrender, saving lives and honor on both sides.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
July 21, 2006 3:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry, but you are answering a question other than the one I asked in an honest search for information. My question was not about Hezbollah's political activity in the Lebanese government.
My question pertained to the physical capability of the Lebanese military to disarm or otherwise neutralize Hezbollah if it was so ordered. While I didn't explicitly ask the question, I also wanted to know if the Lebanese miitary would accept those orders.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
July 21, 2006 3:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
ISRAEL USING 'BLITZKRIEG' TACTICS
Israel's use of "BLITZKRIEG" war tactics--first, heavy aerial bombardment, then massive shelling using artillery pieces and tanks, and finally, a major push using overwhelming infantry forces--against the hapless civilans in both Gaza and Lebanon, was first used and refined by the Nazis in WW II.
It's a bit ironic that Israel, who never misses a chance to blame the world and sow guilt for what happened during WW II, uses the same military tactics that the Nazi controlled Wehrmacht employed to success 65 years ago.
Way to go Israel! You've already turned the West Bank and Gaza into concentration camps with your so-called "security fence."
Now, instead of using gas chambers for your "FINAL SOLUTION" of dealing with the Palestinians, and now, the Lebanonese people, you use F-16's and 155 mm artillery shells, white phosphorous and cluster bombs.
Israel must have forgot the old saying, "Choose your enemies well."
Greg Bacon
Ava, MO
July 21, 2006 3:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, there was a conceptual foundation laid by the German, Heinz Guderian, but there were similar descriptions by a young French colonel named De Gaulle, and by the UK theorists JFC Fuller and BH Liddell-Hart. During the US Louisiana Maneuvers of 1940, a division commander named Patton was eventually told to stop using such tactics because it so disrupted larger forces that the game observers could not evaluate other doctrines.
I'm afraid there is a massive difference in lethality between gas chambers and artillery shells, white phosphorus, and cluster bombs. Equating the two trivializes the very idea of industrialized genocide.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
July 21, 2006 3:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
"One of the very disappointing things about this site..."
I suspect Josh's response might be to invite you to reconsider whether you feel comfortable here, in that case.
Yes, this is snark.
Even "drive-by" snark, as I have experienced recently.
July 21, 2006 4:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
The response to events in Lebanon and the region in general reflect a historical heritage that deserves to be remembered but needs sorely to be discarded as a reason for perpetuating the same feelings of hatred and bias that have defined the conduct of so many for so long.
Continuously instilling each successive generation with the same hatred and bias of their forebears assures that each will be burdened with a life of tragedy. At some point this must be understood and have the past laid to rest if ever a generation is to live out their lives in peace. Those in government and positions of power who remember the past and carry the tragedies of their lives as a banner of their being are most responsible for this condition. They shape the future of their respective nations and can reshape history if they so desire. But they must first put away their hatred by realizing it isn't an appropriate gift to be giving their children. Doing so dooms that new generation to the same tragic life of the former.
thepeoplechoose
July 21, 2006 4:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
You may have already seen this, but "the Christian Science Monitor has an excellent piece analyzing this issue.
The conclusion you can probably guess.
The estimate that Hibzallah could replace its 12,000 Katyushas and other weapons within four months based on Iran's manufacturing capacity of 10,000 per month gives one indication.
Brian Jenkins says that Israel can probably reduce Hizballah's threat somewhat, "But will Israel be able to destroy Hizbullah in terms of its identity, the determination of its leadership, the devotion of its followers, and their dedication to continuing the struggle? No, that's not realistic."
The military analysts articles are starting to flow - and so far just about all of them are coming down positive on two points - Hizballah can't be destroyed, and Israel has screwed up if they think they can get what they want by destroying Lebanon. They also universally think Israel has seriously overreacted by bombing civilian targets and this will seriously backfire on Israel by uniting the Lebanese factions against them.
Like, duh...
July 21, 2006 4:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Iran has to try to avoid face-to-face conflict until they have nuclear weapons (not repeat Saddam's insane mistake with Gulf War I).
Conversely, I believe this is all about Cheney and the neocons trying to provoke Iran into a war.
Too bad about the civilians.
July 21, 2006 4:58 AM | Reply | Permalink